Videos of our simulations
Below are example videos showing output from MERRA-2 of extreme AOD events over the Midwestern USA along with output from WRF-Chem simualtions conducted at 12 km resolution and regridded to the MERRA-2 grid resolution. The video on the left is for an event that occured in April 2008, while that on the right is for an event during August-September 2015
Below is a video that illustrates output from the fourth component of our reseach project where we quantified the sensitivity of extreme AOD events to emission controls.
This video is also available on YOUTUBE at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk7jc1Vmxsg
Overview
This project was funded under the NASA Opportunity entitled: 'ROSES 2014: Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments'. It is thus designed to improve scientific understanding of the drivers and manifestations of climate variability and change and serve the NCA process. For more information about the NCA 2014 report click here.. For more information about the Fourth National Climate Assessment click here.
Expected significance: Aerosol particles are major players within Earth’s climate system, and in large concentrations, can severely impact human health. However, their concentrations and properties are highly variable spatially (horizontal and vertical) as well as temporally, making it difficult to quantify their regional climate forcing and human health effects. In research component (RC) 1 we will quantify their spatial and temporal scales of coherence over the contiguous US and thus build regional climate change indicators and improve understanding of the predictability, length scales and covariance structures of aerosol properties at regional and smaller scales. In RC 2-4 we will focus on improved understanding of the causes of, and controls on, extreme aerosol events (i.e. unusually high aerosol loading in a specific place, at a given time), during which climate and health impacts are magnified. We will quantify the horizontal and temporal extent of different extreme event types, how these properties vary as a function of aerosol type, source strength, and meteorological conditions, and develop regional indicators to document how these events have changed through time (RC 2 and 3). Then we will conduct high-resolution numerical modeling to determine controls on extreme event intensity and scale, and how such events may change as a result of future climate change or emission control measures (RC 4).
Relevance to the NCA: Our project will advance assessment-relevant science by improving our ability to quantify regional aerosol climate forcing and human health impacts across the contiguous US. It is responsive to research needs identified in the 3rd NCA and will provide improved and traceable input to forthcoming NCA activities.
If you would like a briefer primer on what aerosols are and how they impact climate read a short reference note we wrote for the Elsevier Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences
in 2015: Pryor S.C., Crippa P., Sullivan R.C. (2015): Atmospheric chemistry. Chapter number 09177 in an Elsevier online reference module 'Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences' (, ISBN: 978-0-12-409548-9).
Products
Journal articles
Guo Y., Crippa P., Thota A. and Pryor S.C. (2021): Extreme aerosol events over eastern North America. Part 2: Responses to changing emissions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033759, doi: 10.1029/2020JD033759
Guo Y., Crippa P., Thota A. and Pryor S.C. (2021): Extreme aerosol events over eastern North America. Part 1: Characterizing and simulating historical events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2020JD033758, doi: 10.1029/2020JD033758.
Note: Output from our WRF-Chem simulations featured in these manuscripts are available at: doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4315825
Jin Q., Crippa P. and Pryor S.C. (2020): Spatial characteristics and temporal evolution of the relationship between PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth over the eastern USA during 2003-2017. Atmospheric Environment 239, 117718 doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117718.
Jin Q. and Pryor S.C. (2020): Long-term trends of extreme aerosol optical depth events and radiation in North America using multiple satellite retrievals, CERES and MERRA2. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125 doi: 10.1029/2019JD031137 .
Crippa P., Sullivan R.C., Thota A., and Pryor S.C. (2019): Sensitivity of simulated aerosol properties over eastern North America to WRF-Chem parameterizations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 3365-3383.doi:10.1029/2018JD029900
Sullivan R.C., Crippa P., Matsui H., Leung, L.R., Zhao C., Thota A., and Pryor S.C. (2018): New particle formation leads to cloud dimming. Nature Partner Journals: Climate and Atmospheric Science 1 art # 9, doi:10.1038/s41612-018-0019-7.
Sullivan R.C., Levy R., da Silva A., and Pryor S.C. (2017): Developing and diagnosing climate change indicators of regional aerosol optical properties. Nature Scientific Reports 7 art # 18093, doi 10.1038/s41598-017-18402-x.
Crippa P., Castruccio S. and Pryor S.C. (2017): Forecasting ultrafine particle concentrations from satellite and in situ observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122 1828–1837.doi:10.1002/2016JD026021
Crippa P., Sullivan R.C., Thota A., and Pryor S.C. (2017): The impact of resolution on meteorological, chemical and aerosol properties in regional simulations with WRF-Chem. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17 1511-1528.
Sullivan R.C., Crippa P., Hallar A.G., Larisse L., Whitburn S., Van Damme M., Leaitch W.R., Walker J., Khlystov A., and Pryor S.C. (2016): Using satellite-based measurements to explore spatiotemporal scales and variability of drivers of new particle formation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121 12217–12235.doi:10.1002/2016JD025568
Crippa P., Sullivan R.C., Thota A., and Pryor S.C. (2016): Evaluating the skill of high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations in describing drivers of aerosol direct climate forcing on the regional scale. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 397-416.
Other publications
Pryor S.C., Sullivan R.C., Bernstein D.N., Thota A., and Crippa P. (2017): Detection and attribution of trends in aerosol populations and extreme aerosol events over North America. 3rd PEEX Science Conference, Moscow, Russia, September 2017. 6 page printed paper published in Report Series in Aerosol Science, University of Helsinki, p403-409 in Proceedings of the 3rd Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Conference and the 7th PEEX Meeting, Editors: Hanna K. Lappalainen, Päivi Haapanala, Alla Borisova, Sergey Chalov, Nikolay Kasimov, Sergej Zilitinkevich, and Markku Kulmala (2017).
Team
Team members based at Cornell University
Professor Sara C. Pryor, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Previous team member: Dr. Yafang Guo, Post Doc, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Now at the University of Arizona.
Previous team member: Dr. Qinjian Jin, Post Doc, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Now at University of Kansas.
Previous team member: Mr. Lance Nino, Undergraduate Student, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Now a graduate student at Colorado State University
Previous team member: Dr. Diana Bernstein, Post Doc, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Previous team member: Dr. Ryan C. Sullivan, ex-PhD candidate now PhD holder!, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Now at Argonne National Laboratory.
Team members based at Indiana University
Mr. Robert Henschel, director for Science Community Tools at Indiana University’s Pervasive Technology Institute (PTI) in the Research Technologies division.
Mr. Abhinav Thota, a member of the IU Scientific Applications and Performance team
Team members based at NASA
Dr. Robert C. Levy, a Research Physical Scientist in the Climate and Radiation Laboratory
Dr. Arlindo M. da Silva, a Research Meteorologist at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
Team members based at University of Notre Dame (ex. Newcastle U in the UK)
Assistant Professor Paola Crippa, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences
Final Report
Final Report.
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